## Scrapping the North Sea Windfall Tax Won't Help Consumers, Say Economists

As pressure mounts on UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to ease or eliminate the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas producers, leading economists and energy analysts are pushing back hard — warning that doing so would do absolutely nothing to reduce household energy bills and would simply hand larger profits to already-thriving energy companies.

Reeves is reportedly weighing cuts to the energy profits levy, or possibly replacing it entirely with a lower duty structure. The discussion comes as oil prices climbed back toward $100 per barrel on Monday, driven by escalating tensions following the US-Israel offensive on Iran, with no clear end in sight.

## What Is the Energy Profits Levy?

The windfall tax — formally known as the energy profits levy — was introduced in 2022 in response to the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As global oil and gas prices surged more than 50% within weeks, energy producers found themselves reaping enormous profits without any corresponding increase in production costs. The government stepped in to capture a portion of those unexpected gains through the levy.

Now, with Middle Eastern oil output faltering and tankers caught up in disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, producers are again positioned to enjoy a significant financial windfall.

## Why Cutting the Tax Won't Reduce Energy Bills

Despite calls from the Conservative Party to scrap the tax — framed as a lifeline for the struggling North Sea industry — experts are united in their skepticism.

Simon Cran-McGreehin, Head of Analysis at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, explained the fundamental reason why consumers would see no benefit: the levy targets producer profits, not output volumes. Because oil and gas prices are set by international markets, UK producers cannot pass the tax burden down the supply chain to end users.

"It's an upstream tax, so it does not impact the end consumer," he said plainly.

### The Investment Argument Doesn't Hold Up Either

Some industry advocates argue that removing the tax would free up capital for reinvestment in North Sea production. But Alex Chapman, Senior Economist at the New Economics Foundation, dismissed this reasoning. With companies already generating bumper profits from soaring prices, he argued, there is no shortage of funds for reinvestment — tax relief simply isn't necessary.

"The Treasury should look to real opportunities for growth, not this," Chapman said.

## International Comparisons and the Tax Burden

Another common argument from those seeking relief from the levy is that the UK's tax regime puts North Sea operators at a disadvantage compared to international competitors. However, Bob Ward, Policy Director at the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, noted that the 78% tax rate applied to North Sea profits is broadly comparable to what Norwegian producers pay — hardly an outlier by global standards.

Ward also cautioned against hasty policy changes given the current climate. The windfall tax has raised approximately £12 billion since its introduction — a significant figure, though still far short of the £56 billion the government spent shielding consumers from soaring energy costs during the 2022–23 price crisis.

"It seems a bit premature for the government to consider removal of the energy profits levy now, with energy companies again set to make windfall profits and the possibility that the government may yet again have to spend taxpayers' money to protect consumers," Ward said.

## New Drilling Is Not a Quick Fix

Proponents of expanding North Sea drilling often point to increased domestic production as a solution to energy insecurity. But any new extraction projects approved today would take well over a decade to come online — far too slow to make any meaningful difference to the current situation.

By contrast, scaling up renewable energy infrastructure and accelerating the transition to electric vehicles could deliver tangible results far sooner.

Robert Palmer, Deputy Director of campaign group Uplift, was blunt about the prospects of the North Sea as an economic engine: "It's a fantasy, a pipe dream by a declining industry — because this is about geology, not politics."

He added a pointed observation about the broader picture: "All of us are about to get poorer — except the oil and gas companies and their shareholders. It's pretty incredible that these companies are lobbying now for even less tax."

## What Can Consumers Actually Do?

While policy debates continue in Westminster, experts say individuals can take meaningful steps to reduce their exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices. Practical measures include:

- **Switching from large petrol or diesel SUVs** to public transport or electric vehicles
- **Installing heat pumps** to reduce reliance on gas heating
- **Adding insulation and solar panels** to improve home energy efficiency

These changes won't happen overnight, but they represent a more reliable path to lower energy costs than any changes to North Sea tax policy.

Economists warn that scrapping the North Sea windfall tax would only boost oil company profits, offering zero benefit to UK consumers facing rising energy costs

Windfall Tax Cut Won't Lower UK Energy Bills, Experts Say

large_2826.jpg

medium_2826.jpg

small_2826.jpg

thumbnail_2826.jpg

2826.jpg

Abolishing the North Sea Windfall Tax Won't Lower Your Energy Bills, Experts Warn

## Goldman Sachs Offers Hedge Funds New Ways to Wager Against Corporate Debt

Goldman Sachs is actively courting hedge funds with innovative strategies designed to place bearish bets against corporate loans, as mounting concerns over artificial intelligence's potential to reshape the software industry continue to fuel demand for alternative investment approaches.

### AI Disruption Driving Demand for Defensive Strategies

The push comes at a time when investors are increasingly anxious about how rapid advancements in AI technology could fundamentally upend established software businesses. These fears have created a growing appetite among institutional investors for tools that allow them to profit from potential downturns in corporate credit markets.

Goldman Sachs, one of Wall Street's most influential financial institutions, is positioning itself at the forefront of this trend by developing and marketing structured strategies that enable sophisticated investors to take short positions on corporate loan instruments.

### What This Means for the Market

The development signals a broader shift in how institutional capital is being deployed in response to the AI revolution. Rather than simply seeking exposure to AI-driven growth, a segment of the investment community is now actively hedging against the industries most vulnerable to technological disruption.

Corporate loans tied to legacy software firms and technology companies perceived as lagging in AI adoption are among those drawing heightened scrutiny from hedge fund managers exploring these new Goldman-backed strategies.

### A New Era of Credit Market Positioning

As artificial intelligence continues to accelerate change across multiple sectors, demand for sophisticated financial instruments that can capture both the upside and the downside of this transformation is expected to grow. Goldman Sachs appears well-positioned to capitalize on this evolving landscape by offering tailored solutions to its hedge fund client base.

Goldman Sachs is offering hedge funds new strategies to bet against corporate loans amid growing fears that AI advances could disrupt the software industry.

Goldman Sachs Pitches Hedge Funds on Corporate Loan Short St

large_https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F436ddde5-5347-4e18-be55-ecec79d1f477.jpg

medium_https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F436ddde5-5347-4e18-be55-ecec79d1f477.jpg

small_https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F436ddde5-5347-4e18-be55-ecec79d1f477.jpg

thumbnail_https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F436ddde5-5347-4e18-be55-ecec79d1f477.jpg

https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F436ddde5-5347-4e18-be55-ecec79d1f477.jpg

Goldman Sachs Courts Hedge Funds With New Strategies to Short Corporate Loans

## Britain Sitting on Razor-Thin Gas Reserves Amid Middle East Crisis

Great Britain is navigating a precarious energy situation, with fossil gas reserves falling to just under two days' worth of supply — a development that has raised serious concerns among energy analysts as the conflict involving Iran continues to shake global energy markets.

According to data from National Gas, the body responsible for operating the UK's national gas transmission network, Great Britain held approximately 6,999 gigawatt hours (GWh) of stored gas as of last Saturday. That figure represents a notable drop compared to the 9,105 GWh recorded at the same point a year ago, and sits well below the system's maximum capacity of 12 days of supply.

## LNG Tankers Diverted Away from Europe

Compounding the storage shortfall, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg reveals that at least two liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers have changed course mid-Atlantic since Friday, redirecting from Europe toward Asia. This follows three similar diversions recorded the previous week, as buyers in Asia compete aggressively for available LNG supply.

The root cause of these disruptions traces back to the intensifying military conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran has effectively moved to restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of all global seaborne gas shipments travel. Meanwhile, Qatar, home to the world's largest LNG production facility, was forced to halt output last week following a drone attack on the plant.

## Gas Prices Spike as Supply Fears Mount

The supply disruptions have triggered a dramatic surge in energy prices. UK month-ahead gas prices climbed to 137 pence per therm last week, nearly double the 78.5 pence per therm recorded before hostilities involving Iran escalated. Asian LNG spot prices also spiked sharply, reflecting the intense regional competition for diverted cargoes.

## National Gas and Government Push Back on Alarm

Despite the concerning headlines, both National Gas and the UK government have moved swiftly to reassure the public that an energy crisis is not imminent.

A National Gas spokesperson stated that current storage levels are broadly consistent with seasonal expectations and comparable to the same period last year. The spokesperson emphasized that gas storage represents only one component of Britain's broader and more diversified energy supply infrastructure.

"Great Britain benefits from a wide range of supply sources that the market draws on every day," the spokesperson said, pointing to domestic production from the UK continental shelf, Norwegian pipeline imports, LNG imports, and interconnectors with mainland Europe as key contributors to overall supply.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero echoed that message, firmly rejecting the notion that the UK is limited to two days of gas access. A government spokesperson described such claims as "categorically untrue," reaffirming confidence in the resilience and diversity of the country's energy system.

## Britain vs. Europe: A Different Storage Model

It is worth noting that mainland Europe holds substantially larger gas reserves — measured in several weeks of supply — but energy experts caution against direct comparisons. Great Britain deliberately operates a more flexible, market-driven storage model, where reserves fluctuate throughout the year based on demand patterns rather than government mandates.

Storage levels have seen modest replenishment since late February, aided by milder seasonal temperatures that have reduced overall gas demand — a typical pattern heading into spring.

## Long-Term Energy Security Under the Spotlight

While the immediate picture may not signal an emergency, National Gas has made clear that structural challenges are building beneath the surface. In its response to a recent government energy review, the organization proposed a series of measures to strengthen Britain's long-term energy resilience.

These proposals include expanding LNG import capacity, deploying floating storage units, and working closely with the energy industry to maintain and enhance flexible supply capabilities.

National Gas chief executive Jon Butterworth described the current period as a "defining moment for Britain's energy security," citing a combination of declining North Sea production, growing dependency on imported gas, and shifting demand patterns as forces that are fundamentally reshaping the risk landscape for UK energy supply.

As the conflict in the Middle East shows little sign of immediate resolution, energy security is likely to remain a central concern for both industry stakeholders and policymakers in the weeks ahead.

Great Britain's gas storage has dropped to under two days as the Iran conflict diverts LNG tankers and drives UK gas prices to nearly double their pre-war level

Britain's Gas Reserves Fall to Two Days Amid Iran Crisis

large_7218.jpg

medium_7218.jpg

small_7218.jpg

thumbnail_7218.jpg

7218.jpg

Britain's Gas Reserves Drop to Two Days as Iran Conflict Sends Energy Prices Surging

Caffè Nero’s founder said prolonged disruption could put the price of a cup of coffee up again. Photograph: David Burton/Alamy View image in fullscreen Caffè Nero’s founder said prolonged disruption could put the price of a cup of coffee up again. Photograph: David Burton/Alamy Caffè Nero says growth is ‘steady’ but coffee prices are likely to rise Founder of family-owned firm says it will pause acquisitions after takeover of 15 Compass Coffee stores in US

Caffè Nero will continue opening new shops in the UK and overseas, but has warned coffee prices are likely to keep rising as the war in Iran and higher staffing costs feed through.

The family-owned business, which has just bought the 15-store Compass Coffee based in Washington DC to convert to its main brand, is aiming to open as many as 30 UK stores and between 50 and 70 more this year across the 10 other countries it operates in.

Gerry Ford, who founded Caffè Nero in 1997 and remains its majority shareholder, said the 1,151-outlet business, which employs 11,000 people around the world, was outperforming its bigger rivals Starbucks and Costa. Starbucks has been closing outlets in North America and Costa’s owner Coca-Cola recently ditched plans for a sale after losses widened and sales fell at established stores.

Ford suggested those brands had expanded too rapidly and suffered from multiple management changes.

“We have been more consistent in what we are trying to do. We have not had massive growth upswings. We are going at a steady pace,” he said. “We can expand more rapidly or slow down. We have more flexibility as not trying to hit a quarterly reporting target. We are able to have longer-term planning.

View image in fullscreen Caffè Nero founder Gerry Ford said the chain was outperforming its bigger rivals Starbucks and Costa. Photograph: Phil Lewis/SOPA Images/Shutterstock “We don’t want to take over the world. We need to move to our own rhythm.

“We never wanted to suffer the consequence of trying to be everywhere for everybody.”

After buying up Nottingham’s 200 Degrees for about £9m in October 2024 and snapping up Wales’ Coffee#1 and former Tesco-owned operator Harris +Hoole in recent years, the business is expanding those brands as well as its eponymous chain.

However, Caffè Nero’s plans for more acquisitions are on hold for at least a year as the group absorbs its series of recent acquisitions which have led to higher borrowing and related finance costs.

In the year to May 2025, sales rose 13% to £587.6m from £519.8m. However, pre-tax losses widened to £41m from £34m as finance costs rose to nearly £78m from £69m a year before on higher interest rates and more borrowing to fund acquisitions.

At the year end, the company had £481m of debt, up from £428m a year before, with £42m in a facility due for repayment in December.

Ford says that underlying profits are up by a fifth and the new acquisitions bring new sources of profit and sales as well adding to debts.

Growth continued last year with sales up 7% in the UK to £185.4m in the six months to November led by 5% growth at established outlets, helped by new products such as iced-matcha drinks and pistachio-flavoured croissants.

He said Caffè Nero will keep a number of its new brands above the door, while the parent company helps with buying ingredients and back-office operations but leaves each chain’s management to “go for it” on operating and expanding.

“The industry has absorbed a lot of costs in recent years and all it means is that we will open fewer stores in a year. If those costs were not coming in we would probably open more.”

He says business rates and increases in the cost of employing people in the UK have only added to a rise in coffee prices – which tripled between the end of 2023 and early last year partly driven by the climate crisis which has affected crops in important growing regions such as Brazil and Colombia.

Today, the price of Arabica coffee remains almost double that in 2023.

View image in fullscreen The Caffè Nero group now has more than 650 outlets in the UK. Photograph: Chaz Bharj/Alamy “I have been doing this 29 years and the price of coffee goes up and down. Eighteen months ago it went up and it didn’t really come down,” he said.

“The last three months it has come down a bit. We have got through the worst of it and the buying … will be more reasonable and normal. That will be very much welcomed by us.”

However, Ford said that is not likely to lead to the price of a cup of coffee reducing as other costs remain high, including energy, which the conflict in the Middle East is only driving up again .

He warned prolonged disruption could put the price of a cup of coffee up again. The average latte in the UK across all chains is already £3.76, up 35% in the past five years according to World Coffee Portal.

“Typically prices go up but not down. I expect as the year goes on we will see,” he said.

Caffè Nero began in 1997 when Ford, an American who studied in the UK and began his career working for a private equity firm after studying at Oxford University, bought a handful of London coffee shops and created the Italian-influenced brand.

The group now has more than 650 outlets in the UK with Turkey its second-largest market with 112 outlets, followed by Poland where there are 93. The acquisition of Compass Coffee takes the total number of outlets in the US to 60 and adds a new coffee roasting facility to support further coffee shops.

“We are not going to end up with 5,000 stores but there is a lot of white space as an independent premium,” Ford said. “No market is saturated at all.”

Founder of family-owned firm says it will pause acquisitions after takeover of 15 Compass Coffee stores in US

Caffè Nero says growth is ‘steady’ but coffee prices are lik

large_3857.jpg

medium_3857.jpg

small_3857.jpg

thumbnail_3857.jpg

3857.jpg

Caffè Nero says growth is ‘steady’ but coffee prices are likely to rise

## Another Global Crisis, Another Economic Shockwave

The conflict involving Iran may be geopolitically unprecedented, but its economic ripple effects are disturbingly familiar. Once again, the United Kingdom — and the broader global economy — finds itself bracing for a significant price shock, the latest in a series of financial disruptions that have defined the past several years.

From the economic paralysis of the Covid-19 pandemic and its chaotic aftermath to Russia's invasion of Ukraine sending energy costs soaring, the world has absorbed one costly blow after another. Add to this the growing volatility in commodity prices driven by climate change — affecting everything from coffee and cocoa to olive oil — and the picture becomes even more turbulent.

## Oil Prices: The Domino That Topples Everything Else

Of all commodities, oil remains uniquely destructive when its price surges. Its role extends far beyond fuel — it feeds into fertiliser production, manufacturing processes, and transportation networks. When oil prices spike, the pain is felt across virtually every sector of the economy.

According to the RAC, the ongoing Middle East conflict has already pushed up the price of a litre of unleaded petrol in the UK by 3 pence. While that may seem modest, it signals the beginning of what could become a much steeper climb.

Perhaps most troubling is who bears the heaviest burden when prices rise. Research from economists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that energy, food, and agricultural commodities have a disproportionate ability to worsen economic inequality when their prices increase. Simply put, the poorest households suffer most.

## The Wealth Gap in Energy Profits

While ordinary consumers struggle with higher bills, the financial gains from rising oil prices are concentrated among a privileged few. A notable study examining the 2022 US oil price surge found that 50% of the windfall profits generated by elevated prices flowed to the wealthiest 1% of individuals through stock market gains. Meanwhile, the bottom half of the population captured just 1% of those benefits.

Lead researcher Gregor Semieniuk summarised the injustice bluntly: everyone bears the cost of energy-driven inflation, yet the very prices creating that inflation are simultaneously delivering extraordinary profits to a small and already-affluent class of shareholders.

Unlike the United States — a net oil exporter that can offset some of the damage — the UK is a net importer, meaning higher oil prices are an almost entirely negative development for the British economy.

## Household Energy Bills and the July Price Cap

If the current spike in natural gas prices is sustained, British households could face sharply higher energy bills when the next quarterly price cap comes into effect in July. This would be a significant political setback for the Labour government, which has made reducing household costs a central plank of its domestic agenda. Government ministers are reportedly already exploring options to shield consumers from the worst potential increases.

## Central Banks Caught in a Difficult Position

A fresh energy price shock creates an especially thorny problem for central bankers, and nowhere more so than in the UK. In theory, monetary policymakers can choose to "look through" supply-side shocks — temporary surges in energy costs that slow growth and ultimately ease inflationary pressure as consumers reduce spending elsewhere.

Alan Taylor, an independent member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), recently acknowledged this limitation plainly. "Large energy shocks move faster than inflation-targeting central banks can respond," he noted, adding that central banks and their mandates simply cannot fully resolve every category of inflation problem.

Nevertheless, with inflation on the verge of returning to the Bank's 2% target, a renewed price surge is likely to prompt the divided MPC to pause any planned interest rate cuts. The result could be several difficult months in which the Bank holds rates steady while unemployment continues to rise — with young workers disproportionately affected.

Research from the Institute for Public Policy Research, conducted by Joseph Evans and Carsten Jung, has already highlighted the dangers of running the economy "too cold for too long" in pursuit of inflation control — a strategy that risks causing serious, lasting harm to the labour market.

## Rethinking the Policy Framework

With geopolitical instability and climate disruption looking increasingly permanent, some economists are calling for a fundamental rethink of how monetary policy operates. Economists at the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute have proposed "adaptive inflation targeting" — a more flexible approach that would allow central banks greater room to manoeuvre during periods of repeated external shocks.

But monetary policy alone cannot carry the full weight of the response. Politicians must also step up. That means actively securing supply chains for critical commodities, protecting lower-income households from the harshest economic consequences, and taking a harder line against the price gouging that routinely emerges during periods of tight supply.

## The Long-Term Answer: Energy Independence

In the energy sector, the most durable solution remains reducing dependence on volatile global fossil fuel markets. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has made this argument forcefully, framing Labour's clean energy agenda as both an environmental and an economic imperative: moving toward homegrown, renewable power that the UK can actually control.

However, the transition will take time — and the challenge extends well beyond energy. Governments worldwide are being forced to take a far more hands-on approach to the supply chains that underpin daily life, from food to rare earth minerals. The era of lean, just-in-time global supply chains, built on the assumption of stability, is rapidly giving way to a more cautious, resilience-focused model.

## Preparing for What Comes Next

Should the conflict show signs of de-escalating in the near term, some of the pressure on energy supplies could ease. But for now, as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver the annual Mais lecture outlining Labour's growth strategy, the economic backdrop is anything but reassuring. The UK must prepare itself for yet another unwelcome jolt to an already strained economy.

The Iran conflict is pushing oil and gas prices higher, threatening UK households with rising energy bills and putting central bankers in a difficult spot.

Business

Abolishing the North Sea Windfall Tax Won't Lower Your Energy Bills, Experts Warn

Goldman Sachs Courts Hedge Funds With New Strategies to Short Corporate Loans

Britain's Gas Reserves Drop to Two Days as Iran Conflict Sends Energy Prices Surging

Caffè Nero says growth is ‘steady’ but coffee prices are likely to rise

Bracing for Impact: How the Iran Conflict Could Trigger a Fresh Economic Price Shock in the UK