Sinners vs. One Battle After Another: What Anonymous Oscar Ballots Reveal About This Year's Unpredictable Race
Leaked anonymous Oscar ballots are offering rare insight into one of the most competitive awards seasons in recent memory. Here's what voters are really saying.
What Leaked Oscar Ballots Tell Us About the 2026 Race
The Academy Awards have never been easy to predict, but this year's race may be the most wide-open in recent history. Thanks to another round of anonymous ballots surfacing from outlets like Variety and Entertainment Weekly, we now have a rare peek behind the curtain — and the picture it reveals is anything but clear-cut.
It's worth remembering that the modern Oscar landscape looks very different from what it once was. Following the seismic #OscarsSoWhite controversy in 2016 — fueled in part by snubs like Michael B. Jordan's overlooked turn in Creed — the Academy underwent a sweeping transformation. More women, more people of color, and more international voices were brought into the voting fold, fundamentally changing what kinds of films get recognized. The results have been evident in recent winners like Parasite, Moonlight, Anora, and The Zone of Interest. This year's contenders continue that evolution.
Best Actress: The One Sure Thing
If there's a lock in any acting category this season, it's the leading lady of Hamnet. Jessie Buckley has swept every major precursor award, and the ballot excerpts confirm that any whispers of a backlash exist almost exclusively in online spaces. One Academy member described her work as "the performance of the year," while another said it operated on "a whole other level." Five of Variety's eight featured voters chose her, as did three of EW's four-person panel. In a race full of uncertainty, this one stands apart.
Best Supporting Actress: A Three-Way Battle Nobody Saw Coming
This category may be the tightest acting race of the entire ceremony. The precursor wins are scattered across three films: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) claimed the Golden Globe, Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) took home the BAFTA, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) secured both the Critics Choice and SAG awards.
While Taylor and Mosaku both enjoy genuine voter enthusiasm, historical precedent favors nominees from films with broader Academy recognition — the last time a sole nominee from a film won this category was Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Still, Madigan has generated surprising momentum. Two of EW's four voters selected her, praising her as "wonderful for a veteran actor." Variety noted she carries "substantial goodwill" among the Los Angeles contingent, with additional voters calling her performance "classic," "showy," and "nutty" in the best possible way. Don't count out the other two frontrunners, but Madigan's night is very much a possibility.
Best Picture: A Genuine Two-Film Showdown
The best picture race has narrowed into a compelling head-to-head between One Battle After Another and Sinners — two auteur-driven, critically acclaimed films released by the same studio. One Battle leads on the precursor circuit, having claimed wins at the Producers Guild, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice Awards. But Sinners has surged following its SAG Awards performance, prompting many Oscar watchers to reconsider.
On the ballot evidence alone, Sinners appears to hold a slight edge. Voters in both the Variety and EW roundups leaned toward it, with one calling it a "masterpiece" and another saying it "made me remember what a theater is for." One anonymous producer revealed they watched it three times in theaters and backed it across nearly every category. Another described the experience as "euphoric," while yet another pledged to vote for it "with all my heart down the line."
That said, a number of voters expressed interest in "spreading the wealth," which could prevent either film from dominating the night entirely.
Other Best Picture Contenders Worth Noting
Not every voter fell into the two-film battle. A passionate few championed other titles: one called Sentimental Value "exquisite, nearly perfect"; another praised Marty Supreme as "the most fun rollercoaster ride experience"; a Hamnet devotee said it "punched me in the gut"; and a Bugonia supporter admitted they "haven't stopped thinking about it." Even Train Dreams found a true believer. The race is wider than the headlines suggest.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson vs. Ryan Coogler
The directing race mirrors the best picture dynamics almost exactly. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has strong support among voters who feel his time is long overdue. "It's Paul's time," declared one voter. Another praised him as unlike any other filmmaker working today, while a third predicted his latest would be remembered "15 to 20 years from now."
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is his primary competition, and the race between them appears genuinely close. It's also worth noting that while splitting best picture and best director between two different films was once common practice, the last six consecutive years have seen one film sweep both awards. Whoever takes director may be telegraphing the night's biggest prize.
Not everyone is sold on One Battle, however — one voter went so far as to call it "the most problematic movie for the Black community since maybe Green Book" — but Anderson's overall support remains robust.
Best Actor: Three Men, One Trophy
For much of the awards season, Timothée Chalamet appeared to be the frontrunner. His electric performance in the surprise box office hit Marty Supreme earned him the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, and his aggressive campaigning kept him firmly in the conversation. However, that relentless visibility gradually began to generate fatigue among some voters — though notably, his much-discussed ballet and opera comments came after voting had already closed.
The race now feels genuinely three-way. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) is currently considered the frontrunner by many analysts, but Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) has emerged as a compelling dark horse. Two EW voters selected Moura, calling his performance essential to the film, while another highlighted that the increasingly diverse Academy electorate may be especially drawn to a foreign-language lead role. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) still has scattered support but appears to have drifted toward the outside.
Jordan may have the edge, but don't be surprised if Moura pulls off the upset.
The New Viewing Requirement: Compliance or Controversy?
In a historic first, Academy members are now required to watch every nominated film in a category before casting their vote, with compliance tracked through the Academy's digital screening platform. The intent is admirable — ensuring a level playing field for all contenders — but the implementation has generated significant behind-the-scenes grumbling.
One voter admitted they "just didn't have time" and skipped voting in several categories altogether, including best supporting actress. Another called the rule "noble" before laughing and adding, "when the movies are 13 hours long, everybody's lying this year." A third said flatly, "I know my colleagues don't watch all of the movies." Most strikingly, one Oscar-nominated director chose not to vote at all, describing the awards as "irrelevant" and the films as too weak to merit the time investment.
It's a candid reminder that even the most well-intentioned reforms face resistance — and that the gap between official Academy policy and actual voter behavior may be wider than the institution would like to admit.
