HPV Vaccine Cuts Cervical Cancer Deaths in Young Women to Near Zero — But Declining Uptake Threatens Progress

HPV Vaccine Delivers Near-Total Protection Against Cervical Cancer Death in Young Women

A major new study has revealed that women who received the HPV vaccine during early adolescence have an almost negligible risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30 — a finding hailed as a landmark moment in cancer prevention. However, researchers are sounding the alarm over declining vaccination rates, warning that hard-won progress could soon be reversed.

What the Research Found

Conducted by scientists at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) and published in the Lancet with funding from Cancer Research UK, the study analysed official cancer mortality and vaccination data for women aged 20 to 34. The findings paint a remarkably optimistic picture for those who were vaccinated.

Girls who received the HPV jab at ages 12 or 13 face an almost zero likelihood of dying from cervical cancer before turning 30. Among vaccinated women aged 30 to 34, the relative risk of dying from the disease drops by 63%. Most strikingly, between 2020 and 2024, not a single woman aged 20 to 24 in England died from cervical cancer — a historic first.

By contrast, women who were never offered the vaccine showed little to no change in cervical cancer mortality over the same period.

Hundreds of Lives Already Saved

Lead author Professor Peter Sasieni, a cancer epidemiology specialist at QMUL, stated that HPV vaccination has already prevented an estimated 200 young women from dying from cervical cancer in England since the programme launched in 2008.

"With close to 90% HPV vaccine uptake in women born between 1995 and 2004, we expect to see thousands of cervical cancer deaths prevented in those women over the coming years," Sasieni said. "HPV vaccination combined with cervical screening could reduce cervical cancer rates to the point where almost no one develops it."

Understanding Cervical Cancer and the HPV Vaccine

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer affecting women globally, according to the World Health Organization. High-risk strains of the human papillomavirus (HPV) are responsible for 99% of all cases. In England alone, approximately 3,300 women receive a cervical cancer diagnosis each year.

The HPV vaccine is known to prevent around 90% of cervical cancers. Beyond cervical cancer, the jab also offers protection against cancers of the anus, penis, vagina, vulva, mouth, and throat, as well as genital warts. It is currently administered to boys and girls in Year 8, with catch-up opportunities available in some areas during Years 9 and 10.

A Warning: Falling Vaccination Rates Could Undo the Progress

Despite these extraordinary results, experts are deeply concerned about a significant drop in vaccination uptake since the COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally, HPV vaccine coverage has fallen to just 75%, with London recording an even lower rate of 60% — well below the World Health Organization's target of 90% coverage among girls by age 15.

Professor Sasieni cautioned that without urgent action, England could see a troubling reversal of these trends. He estimates that falling uptake could lead to an additional 15 to 25 avoidable deaths per year among young women, with potentially 200 preventable cervical cancer deaths annually if coverage is not restored to pre-pandemic levels.

Experts Call for Immediate Action

Helen Hyndman, lead nurse at gynaecological cancer charity The Eve Appeal, stressed that eliminating cervical cancer requires not only improved vaccination rates but also better screening participation and timely access to treatment.

"We need urgent action — we are lagging behind on our plans to eliminate cervical cancer by 2024, and at our current rate it will be 2050 before this is achieved," she warned.

Dr Alison Wright, President of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, described the study's findings as "exciting and powerful," emphasising that broader vaccine access — including through community pharmacies for those who missed school-based vaccination — is essential to sustaining momentum.

NHS and Government Response

Caroline Temmink, NHS Director of Vaccination, welcomed the findings as evidence of the vaccine's life-saving potential. "It's incredibly exciting to be able to say to this whole generation: cervical cancer and some other cancers shouldn't be a risk for you," she said, adding that HPV vaccination is central to the NHS ambition to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040.

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care confirmed that catch-up vaccination campaigns are being rolled out via community pharmacies, alongside initiatives to make cervical screening more accessible. HPV self-testing kits are now being sent to individuals who have not come forward for routine screening, with the aim of detecting cancers at their earliest and most treatable stages.

The Road Ahead

The evidence is clear: the HPV vaccine is one of the most powerful tools available in the fight against cervical cancer. The challenge now lies in ensuring that every eligible young person receives it. Rebuilding vaccination rates to pre-pandemic levels and maintaining robust cervical screening programmes will be critical if England is to achieve its goal of eliminating cervical cancer as a public health threat.